Forecasting catastrophe: Statistical physics approach


Soumyajyoti Biswasi
Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Goettingen

Wednesday, 30.05.2018, 17:00
WW8, Raum 2.018, Dr.-Mack-Str. 77, Fürth


Breakdown of disordered systems under external stress is a common situation that can show up in a wide variety of cases. Examples include fracture of solids in a laboratory to large scale failures like outages in power grids or slip events in tectonic plates i.e. earthquakes. The precursors to an imminent breakdown are often embedded in the time series of activities prior to such a breakdown. In this talk, I will discuss such signals of breakdown with examples from earthquake and power grid outages. I will also discuss the fiber bundle model of fracture in this context. Finally, a brief note on the 'perilous effects' of coarse graining in dynamical systems will be discussed.